Google Research introduces SEEDS — a diffusion-based generative AI to produce large weather forecast ensembles
Google Research published a paper in Science Advances describing SEEDS (Scalable Ensemble Envelope Diffusion Sampler), a generative AI method based on denoising diffusion probabilistic models that can efficiently produce large ensembles of weather forecasts conditioned on as few as one or two numerical model runs. The authors report that SEEDS can generate realistic, probabilistic forecast ensembles at a small fraction of the computational cost of traditional physics-based ensembles and that the generated ensembles match or exceed physics-based ensembles on some skill metrics.