NEWS · RESEARCH · #468
AI Impacts 2024 survey: leading AI researchers put average extinction risk at 18%
AI Impacts' 2024 survey of more than 1,500 AI researchers found an average probability of human extinction or 'permanent disempowerment' from AI of about 18%; many researchers estimated higher, and 57% said users will likely not understand AI decisions by 2029. The survey comes amid public alarms from researchers including Anthropic's Jacob Coxon, OpenAI's Daniel Selsam, and ex‑DeepMind researcher Bilal Chughtai, who have called for more safety research, transparency, and coordination.
KEY POINTS
- AI Impacts' 2024 survey of more than 1,500 AI researchers found an average probability of human extinction or 'permanent disempowerment' from AI of about 18%; many researchers estimated higher, and 57% said users will likely not understand AI decisions by 2029.
- The survey comes amid public alarms from researchers including Anthropic's Jacob Coxon, OpenAI's Daniel Selsam, and ex‑DeepMind researcher Bilal Chughtai, who have called for more safety research, transparency, and coordination.
- A substantial average extinction probability among leading researchers can influence policy, funding, and industry action toward more AI safety research, transparency, and coordinated safeguards.
WHY IT MATTERS
A substantial average extinction probability among leading researchers can influence policy, funding, and industry action toward more AI safety research, transparency, and coordinated safeguards.