QCon talk: 'The Ladder Is Missing Rungs' — engineering progression when AI eats the middle
At QCon London, Alasdair Allan summarized empirical work (METR, Anthropic, Redwood Research) showing broad adoption of AI coding tools but mixed productivity effects and potential long-term harms: METR's randomized trial found experienced developers using AI took ~19% longer than expected and a planned follow-up failed because participants refused to work without AI; Anthropic reports high internal usage (around 59% daily) and self‑reported productivity gains, while analyses (Redwood) challenge claims that AI now writes 90% of code. Allan framed a 'supervision paradox' — if AI replaces the tasks that train junior engineers, organizations risk losing institutional context and the pipeline needed to safely oversee increasingly autonomous systems.