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Lester Mackey

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RESEARCH · 1 SOURCE · The Verge AI

Microsoft publishes open-source 'Probabilistic Bias Correction' to improve 2–6 week forecasts

Microsoft researchers published a Nature paper and released open-source software called Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC) that uses machine learning to correct systematic biases in existing weather models; the team reports PBC improved ECMWF model performance for most precipitation and temperature targets and can run on CPUs. The paper lists coauthors from MIT, ECMWF and others and the method is being tested with partners such as Rhiza Research and the Kenya Meteorological Service.

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RESEARCH · 1 SOURCE · MIT News AI

ML postprocessing doubles 2–6 week weather forecast accuracy, paper finds

Researchers including scientists from MIT developed a machine-learning postprocessing model that learns and corrects errors in existing forecasting systems; when applied to a gold-standard model it doubled forecasting accuracy in the 2–6 week (subseasonal) range, placed first in an international forecasting competition, and for the first time beat climatological averages, the team reports in Nature. Coauthors include Judah Cohen, Lester Mackey, Microsoft researchers, ECMWF contributors, and others.

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